The sixth assessment report of the IPCC published at the end of February 2022 highlights the strong existing interactions between ecosystems, climate and human society. It also shows that climate change impacts rural areas, affecting their surrounding ecosystems, their economy and the well-being of rural population. Furthermore, other environmental changes potentially threaten them. In this context, and given that 20% of the EU’s population lives in rural areas, supporting the sustainable transition of these areas seems crucial and the new Long-Term Vision for Rural Areas, announced by the European Commission in June 2021 could play a pivotal role.
Climate change is leading to a rise in temperature, changes in precipitation patterns and increases the occurrence and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, floods and droughts. For instance, in the EU, national temperature records were broken in eight Member States in the last three years 1,2 . These various changes are already impacting the European economy and the well-being of its population. The EEA estimates that “direct economic losses caused by weather- and climate-related extremes in the EEA member countries amounted to approximately EUR 453 billion (in 2017 euro values) in Europe over the period 1980-2017”, with different impacts between regions and populations, southern and rural regions, and poorest households being the most affected1. Regarding rural areas specifically, impacts are of different natures, intensity and they will increase in the coming future (IPCC 2022). First, changes in climate conditions affect crop yields and generate substantial production and income losses in the primary sector (agriculture, forestry and fishery), whose activities remain an important part of rural areas’ economy (representing 12% of rural jobs on average in the EU3). Other economic sectors contributing to the economy of rural areas (e.g. tourism, industry) are also affected due to water scarcity, disruption of energy supply and increased impacts of flooding (e.g., through damage to infrastructure, reduced mobility, etc.). Climate change also has further direct and indirect impacts on rural areas’ population health and well-being. Heatwaves are particularly dangerous for the oldest (main population of rural areas) and July 2021 floods in Europe, for instance, killed more than 200 people.
Beyond climate change, other environmental threats affect the sustainability of rural areas. They are home to most of the EU’s biodiversity, but protected habitats and species show poor status and declining trends. For example, the population of farmland birds declined by one third between 1990 and 2016, and the grassland butterflies index shows a decline of around 35% of the monitored species between 1991 and 2018 (EEA, 2020). Soil and water health and quality are also declining. This loss of biodiversity and degradation of natural resources represents a significant threat for rural areas, as ecosystems produce ecosystem services, such as pollination, biological pest control or the regulation of freshwater quality. Similar to climate change, biodiversity loss will also have a negative economic impact. Regarding the primary sector, the absence of insect pollination, for instance, would result in a reduction of between 25% and 32% of the total production of crops, which are partially dependent on insect pollination in Europe4, significantly impacting rural areas’ economy and people5. The risk of increasing phytosanitary pressures due to the introduction of new pests, diseases and weeds also poses a significant threat to water security and food safety. Moreover, the decline in biodiversity and landscape diversity impact both tourism activities, as rural areas become less attractive and rural population’s mental health6.
To echo these threats, the Long-Term Vision for Rural Areas aims for stronger, connected, resilient and prosperous rural areas by 2040. It takes a holistic view of the main challenges brought about by environmental and climate threats and identifies climatic, environmental and social resilience, and the need for prosperous rural areas as key objectives. It then proposes a Rural Pact bringing together a wide range of actors at the EU, national, regional and local levels in a common framework for cooperation and a Rural Action Plan, supporting initiatives for climate mitigation and adaptation7. However, while these actions are likely to contribute to strengthening rural areas’ climate resilience, the plan needs to be further elaborated. For now, it remains difficult to assess its potential to improve rural areas’ sustainability because it lacks details about how actions will be implemented. For instance, how will carbon farming be supported for peatland restoration and conservation? Moreover, most initiatives target climate threats. Further actions will be needed to ensure the sustainability and environmental resilience of rural areas, as some environmental threats are not tackled in the Action Plan (e.g. decline of biodiversity and loss of services).
1EEA (2019) The European environment — state and outlook 2020: knowledge for transition to a sustainable Europe. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen.
2Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom in 2019 and Ireland, Spain, Italia in 2021
Yiqing QI (2021). CARTE. Ces records de chaleur qui sont tombés en Europe depuis 10 ans, jusqu’aux 48,8° en Sicile. Ouest France website. https://www.ouest-france.fr/environnement/rechauffement-climatique/ces-dix-dernieres-annees-les-records-de-chaleur-en-europe-sont-tombes-les-uns-apres-les-autres-02ee4c86-fb44-11eb-b7a9-6ed9c0dc942a
3EC (2019). AgriData – Jobs and growth in rural areas – (EU27). European Commission website. https://agridata.ec.europa.eu/extensions/DashboardIndicators/JobsGrowth.html?select=EU27_FLAG,1
4In Europe, it is estimated that about 84% of all the crops that have been studied are depending on or benefiting from insect pollination (Williams, I.H. The dependence of crop production within the European Union on pollination by honey bees. Agric. Zool. Rev. 1994, 6, 229–257)
5Zulian, G., Maes, J., & Paracchini, M. L. (2013). Linking land cover data and crop yields for mapping and assessment of pollination services in Europe. Land, 2(3), 472-492
6(EEA, 2019, Filipova et al. 2021)
7Supporting rural municipalities in energy transition and fighting climate change, develop carbon farming for the restoration and conservation of peatland and finance research on soil health and food.
REFERENCES
De La Chesnais, E and Masson, V. (2016). Inondations : 4 milliards d’euros de pertes pour les agriculteurs. Le Figaro. https://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2016/08/03/20002-20160803ARTFIG00130-inondations-4-milliards-d-euros-de-pertes-pour-les-agriculteurs.php#:~:text=Les%20rendements%20baissent%20d’environ,d’aide%20la%20semaine%20derni%C3%A8re
EC (2018). EU rural areas in numbers : Key data for rural areas today, broken down by topic. European commission website.
https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/new-push-european-democracy/long-term-vision-rural-areas/eu-rural-areas-numbers_en
EC (2018 b) CAP SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES …explained – Brief No 8. European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-fisheries/key_policies/documents/cap-specific-objectives-brief-8-jobs-and-growth-in-rural-areas_en.pdf
EEA (2019) The European environment — state and outlook 2020: knowledge for transition to a sustainable Europe. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen.
EEA (2020) State of Nature in the EU: Results from reporting under the nature directives 2013-2018. EEA Report No 10/2020, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen.
Eurostat (2018), Glossary:Rural area. Eurostat, Statistics explained website https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:Rural_area
Filipova T., Kopsieker L., Gerritsen E., Bodin E., Brzezinski B. and Rubio-Ramirez O. (2020) “Mental health and the environment: How European policies can better reflect environmental degradation’s impact on people’s mental health and well-being”. Background paper by the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) and the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal).
Yiqing QI (2021). CARTE. Ces records de chaleur qui sont tombés en Europe depuis 10 ans, jusqu’aux 48,8° en Sicile. Ouest France website. https://www.ouest-france.fr/environnement/rechauffement-climatique/ces-dix-dernieres-annees-les-records-de-chaleur-en-europe-sont-tombes-les-uns-apres-les-autres-02ee4c86-fb44-11eb-b7a9-6ed9c0dc942a
IPCC (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.
Zulian, G., Maes, J., & Paracchini, M. L. (2013). Linking land cover data and crop yields for mapping and assessment of pollination services in Europe. Land, 2(3), 472-492.